Figuring the rate of return by investing in early education is guesswork at best — but one Federal Reserve Bank researcher said it could be as high as 16 percent and continue to grow for generations.

Art Rolnick, a senior vice president and director of research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, reviewed several early education programs conducted during the 1960s.

When the results were compared with a control group of children who did not participate, they found the participating children were less likely to be placed in special education programs and had a significantly higher average achievement score at age 14. Moreover, more than 65 percent graduated from regular high school compared with 45 percent of non-participants. At age 27, four times as many program participants as non-participants earned $2,000 or more per month.

Also, only one-fifth as many program participants as non-participants were arrested five or more times by age 27. But even though 75 percent of a child's brain grows during the first five years, the study showed no significant IQ gains between the groups.

"Investment in human capital breeds economic success not only for those being educated but also for the overall economy," Rolnick told an audience of business representatives, lawmakers and educators.

"Clearly the market rate of return to education is sending a strong signal. Prior to 1983, the wages of a worker with an undergraduate degree exceeded a worker with a high school degree by roughly 40 percent. Currently, that difference is close to 60 percent."

Rolnick spoke to members of the Greater Meriden Chamber of Commerce Thursday to rally businesses to back early childhood education programs. Connecticut, which is in the process of drafting such a program for children born in 2004, will need alternative sources to fund it, said Janice M. Gruendel, who sits on Gov. M. Jodi Rell's advisory panel for early childhood education.

"Parents and a community grow children, not the state," Gruendel told the group. "We're partners."

Rolnick and Rob Grunewald, a regional economic analyst, have proposed a $1.5 billion endowment fund to pay for a pilot choice early education program in Minnesota. He remarked that the price is the same amount as the Minnesota Vikings and Twins would need for their desired new stadiums.

"What makes a good economy is not how many sports stadiums or corporate headquarters there are, but the quality of the workforce," he said.

The $1.5 billion cost would be split three ways between private dollars, state and federal money and represents nearly as much as Minneapolis's gross standard product of $2 billion. Rolnick said it would be a one-time startup fund invested in triple A bonds for a 7 percent annual return.

Initially about 20,000 children statewide would be identified and scholarships would be awarded at about $11,000 annually, but adjusted upward for factors such as special education needs or poor family environments.

Parents would be allowed to select from a list of approved programs and the student's progress monitored. Should the student not make adequate progress, the funding to that school would be withheld. Accountability would be measured through school-readiness tests and an education panel.

Audience members questioned Rolnick on the accountability issue, the role of the business community and whether the student would be followed in later years. Rolnick indicated they would and if they saw signs of slippage, the school would be held accountable.

Rolnick called on the business community to recognize early childhood education as an investment that produces long-term results and a skilled workforce.

A Connecticut Voices for Children sponsored report released Thursday backed up Rolnick and reported that the state's early childhood education industry employs 15,000 workers allowing 160,000 parents to hold jobs and generating more than $290 million in gross state product annually. The report was conducted by the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis at the University of Connecticut.

A plan to expand and finance early childhood education programs will be ready for the governor's office on Nov. 15, Gruendel said.